Since the 2008 housing crisis, many economists have been keeping a careful eye on the housing market. Currently, the market is doing well, leading some to question if the housing market is heading towards a bubble. While there are no clear-cut answer, below are some of the factors that may suggest that the housing market is heading toward a bubble.
Fall in Inventory Auctions
One of the leading factors that suggest a housing bubble is in play is the decline in homes for sale. This low inventory means that buyers face bidding wars, especially in areas with a high demand for housing. Limited supply drives up prices, and when those prices become unsustainable, the market is left with few buyers who can afford to purchase the available homes.
Another indicator of a potential housing bubble is the price disparities and high-market valuation of properties. Some homes priced above the median value can quickly become out of reach for many families. These spikes in price and market valuation can lead to speculation, akin to how the stock market behaves.
A rate increase in mortgage interest rates could be a trigger for a housing bubble. When interest rates rise, homebuyers are less likely to secure financing, which lowers demand and can lead to a fall in home values. The sudden rise could also lead to defaults, which could lead to lenders selling off many homes to recover the loss in mortgages. This creates supply to the market, causing home values to fall.
Current Market Conditions
Currently, unemployment is a crucial factor affecting the housing market. Many people have lost their jobs during the pandemic, leading to fewer home buyers. Also, the pandemic has led to a decrease in construction. This factor has led to fewer new homes coming to the market, while the demand for homes grows. Hence, the low supply and high demand could lead to a future housing bubble in the right climate.
In conclusion, there are several factors that could suggest a housing bubble is on the horizon, but whether or not it happens is difficult to predict. Low inventory can lead to rapid price increases, and mortgage interest rates rising, leading to buyers bowing out, thus leading to a significant fall in home values. While predicting a housing bubble is challenging, it is paramount that the market remains stable, and the parties involved remain vigilant.